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Big Brown Will WIn this Preakness

kaufmanjsk — Fri, 16 May 2008 04:34:19 +0000

Gayego no where to be found along with behindathebar, and recapturetheglory is not in the Preakness:) In the last 25 years only 4 newbies have won being that they were not in the Derby.. The Preakness is the shortest of the Triple Crown so the early speed of Big Brown could dominate~ I think no contest Big Brown for sure!! Everyone else is fighting for second and give 2nd and 3rd to some decent closers as everyone else burns out trying to down chasing big brown in the Preakness.

He is just too strong and this shorter pace only helps as he can adapt~

Big Brown shows his studship

kaufmanjsk — Tue, 06 May 2008 04:44:24 +0000

Well I am not sure how many people picked 8 bellies to show up and run his heart out to place 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. To be honest I put Big Brown in some exactas because he was so fast but did not have 8 bellies and it was a tragic ending but that horse ran his heart out. I was very impressed with the Kentucky Derby performance by Big Brown as he won by some lengths and ran to show he is triple crown material in my eyes. With that from the 20 post position to not being a wire to wire horse but settling in the pack and waving bye as he cranked it on. Is this the year of the Triple Crown tIme will Tell~ Tale of Ekati showed up 4th not an impressive run for Colonel John who was the 2nd favorite to Big Brown~ nEXT stOP pREAKNESS

jOE

Here is what I think about the Derby of 2008

kaufmanjsk — Fri, 02 May 2008 23:59:48 +0000

Hey there guys I figured I would drop a little insight on what I think will happen with the Derby. Of course everyone and their brother will be all about Big Brown… I think the race will kick off to a very fast pace with Big Brown attempting to get a fast start and cut over for a rail to rail finish. I think that these front runners will run each other out and look for some closers. I like Colonial John to win this race even though he is moving to a dirt track I believe he will stay in the middle of the pack and finish strong. THen I will look for an upset of Tale Of Ekati who is a strong closer and good post position. Don’t count Big brown completely out I believe he can nab 3rd. I also believe Gayego will have a good showing and Bob black jack will be strong too. If and that is a huge if because of lack of experience only 1 horse has had that minimal experience of Big Brown~ has one the Derby and one horse has won from the 20th position in the early 1920′s if he pulls a Wire to Wire victory that puts the stamp of a stud on him and look out we might have a triple crown contender… but I will stand my ground and I don’t think big brown will win. Go Colonial John

Here are my picks 10-2-20

Happy Handicapping~

Joe

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Big Brown Is he A Lock for the Derby? or Lacks Experience?

kaufmanjsk — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 12:32:42 +0000

A horse learns something in every race. A horse needs “firsts” (first time getting dirt kicked in his face, first race with a troubled trip, first race being floated wide around the turns, first race with an incredibly fast/slow pace, first race against the top of the class’s talent). Big Brown has had an easy race and win in every race. He’s never had a bad break, never been wide, never had a horse look him in the eye and match his stride in the stretch… it’s those kinds of experiences that prepare you for the Derby more than easy wins by big margins. Curlin last year had never faced a talented field (no horse from those spring Oaklawn races went on to do anything impressive), never dealt with a big field, never had a bad break, never was forced wide or dealt with traffic. Consequently, Curlin was not prepared for the Derby despite the fact that he has turned into quite a talented horse.
. . . Big Brown faces the same problems this year. Of course he could get a good trip in the Derby and get the rail and be on/near the lead and go on to win easily… but the fact of the Derby is that such good trips are very elusive.
. . . Statistically, historically, Big Brown cannot win the Derby. Only 3 starts? Only 1 graded stakes win? Only 1 stakes attempt? All of these are big red flags for a horse about to face 20 of the best horses in the country in only his 4th start of his career, especially when he hasn’t ever faced that kind of talent before.

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Happy Handicapping

Gayego’s Jockey Likes their Chances in the Derby

kaufmanjsk — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 12:28:39 +0000

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Gayego’s jockey, Mike Smith, and his final prep race, the Arkansas Derby, make him one of the most intriguing candidates in Saturday’s 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.

In the last four years three Arkansas Derby winners – Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and Curlin – have gone on to become America’s best 3-year-old.

Smarty Jones won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2004, Afleet Alex won the Preakness and Belmont in 2005 and Curlin won the Preakness last year. And when they didn’t win, they were in the mutuel money – Smarty Jones was a close second in the Belmont; Afleet Alex was third in the Derby; and Curlin was third in the Derby and a photo-finish loser to Rags to Riches in the Belmont.

Although Smith didn’t ride any of those horses, he, too, was prominent in the Triple Crown races during that span. The 42-year-old won the 2005 Derby with 50-1 long shot Giacomo. He also rode Derby runner-up Lion Heart in 2004 and came in third with Giacomo in the Preakness and with Tiago in the 2007 Belmont.

“Winning the Derby certainly makes you want it that much more,” Smith said. “Before you could only guess what it’s like.”

Like Giacomo, Gayego is based in California. But when Giacomo ran, Hollywood Park and Santa Anita didn’t have synthetic surfaces. So, unlike Giacomo’s trainer, John Shirreffs, Gayego’s trainer, Paulo Lobo, decided to hit the road for his colt’s last prep race.

“I wanted to give him a chance to run on the dirt,” Lobo said. “I didn’t think it would be a problem. He has a very good style. He’s a special horse.”

In the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby, Gayego lived up to his trainer’s expectations, outrunning 12 opponents and defeating runner-up Z Fortune by half a length.

“He pressed the pace and then he held off the closers, which is pretty tough to do,” Smith said. “Numbers-wise, it was his best race. This colt has proven he can go on. Paulo is a really good horseman. He gives a horse a chance to develop. We’re looking for Gayego to peak on the first Saturday in May.”

Smith has ridden Gayego in all five of his races. He has won three times and been a close second twice.

“In the mornings before he ran (in races), I could tell without a doubt that he was very classy and had loads of talent,” Smith said. “He’s a big strong horse and he relaxes really well.”

While Gayego’s past performances and running style fit the profile of a strong Derby candidate, his genetic aptitude for the 1�¼-mile distance is questionable. His sire is 1992 Arlington-Washington Futurity winner Gilded Time and his dam, Devils Lake, is the daughter of 1987 Illinois Derby winner Lost Code. While the family tree bespeaks speed up to 11/8 miles, finding classic stamina entails going back to Gayego’s great grandparents.

But Lobo and Smith were brimming with confidence after Gayego worked 5 furlongs in 1:01 Saturday at Churchill.

“He took to the track very well,” Lobo said. “I think he did awesome, especially the gallop out. He keeps improving. I think he can handle the distance.”

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Beatiful Winning Day at Fairmont

kaufmanjsk — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 23:04:51 +0000

Hey there guys… Did a little Horse Hookey today and went to Fairmount for some Live racing at 1:00. The day started out with some severe thunderstorms but that was this morning they pushed through and the sun came out for a beautiful Day of racing. This was a Handicappers Day for Joe I used some of the recent strategies I learned from www.handicappersdream.com and hit an exacta on the first race for about $20 and then went on to hit 2 more exactas and one pick 3 netting about $150 in tickets with betting no more than $6 a race!! Looking forward to another great year… I would love to hear from any horse racing fans who see this blog.. Your successes and triumphs:)

Happy Handicapping

JOe

Who Will Win The Kentucky Derby??

kaufmanjsk — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 18:31:49 +0000

Hello out there~ I know this is a new blog…only 2 days old but looking for thoughts and comments on The 2008 Derby Contenders~ Who will Win?

Santa Anita ~ The Santa Barbara Handicap

kaufmanjsk — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 18:20:09 +0000

Hello out there Horse Racing Fans~ this race is shaping up to be a very good one. THere are a few that I expect to put a good race forward as they try to nab the 200,000 purse at Santa Anita.. Lets look Lavender Sky who has some High Speed Ratings and a solid race in the SantaANah-G2 where she was thrd by a neck with Costume and slightly beaten by Immortel. Should be in the top 3 and had good closing speed in the stretch. I just can’t back this horse to win and think Immortel will beat him again. Immortel had a couple races under her belt this year and a 94 speed rating… She is one year older and appears to be in prime shape with a fast workout on April 12th. Really like how this horse held his own in the Santa Anita and I believe it will have a will strong showing today.. Look for FoxySox to be in there too but its GOing to be Immortelle for theh Santa Barbara~

Happy Saturday

Picks in Santa Anita Race 9 for Santa Barbara Handicap

Immortel~Lavender Sky~ followed by Foxysox … there are a couple surpisers who could mess things up like black mamba but we shall see..

Joe

Undefeated Big Brown preparing for Derby Work Outs

kaufmanjsk — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 04:22:42 +0000

This Big Brown is under the radar as not much media or reporters greeting him for his work out which is common with an undefeated Derby Contender..

Working for the second time since his convincing victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 29, Big Brown turned in almost a carbon copy of his previous drill here just six days earlier. With exercise rider Michelle Nevin aboard, Big Brown galloped through the stretch and around the turn, took a short run to the five-furlong pole, then settled into an even but powerful stride while hugging the inner fence every step of the way.

Posting fractions nearly identical to his previous work on Saturday, Big Brown went in 12:39 seconds, 24.72, 36.79, and 48.58 before completing five furlongs in 1:00.75, according to Daily Racing Form. The final time was .23 of a second slower than Big Brown’s previous work, although his gallop-out clocking of 1:14.31 for six furlongs was a bit faster than last weekend’s

We shall see what the future holds for this Big Horse in The Derby~

Handicapper Joe

Raining Longshots at Fairmount Park

kaufmanjsk — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 04:18:34 +0000

Well it was raining during the day and then the rain stopped then it started raining Longshots at Fairmount, very difficult to handicap but if you just hit a couple of the races you would of made out like a bandit! out of 8 races there was 6 longshots that ran away with the victory. The early Pick 3 actually paid if you ony hit 2 out of 3!! To anyone who nailed a long shot at this small local track of claimers~ let us know..

Stat tuned for some contenders making a bid for the Derby with the races this weekend

Cheers,

Joe Kaufman